Commercial Content 21+There are asteroid-impact-sized NFL moves. These moves hit with explosiveness that reverberate across the league — from their own results to the fantasy impact of those around them.
A great recent example is Tom Brady signing with the Buccaneers. A great legacy example is Marshall Faulk being traded to the Rams.
Then there are other moves that land with a thud. It is easy to forget these because they are, well, forgettable. Recall the Dolphins choosing to go with Daunte Culpepper instead of Drew Brees during 2006 free agency? Who recalls being enamored with the Matt Cassel Chiefs, and how long did that last?
Herschel Walker didn’t set the world on fire the way many thought he would after he was dealt from the Cowboys to the Vikings in the 1990s. One recent one you might recall is Russell Wilson to the Broncos.
Another deal that we think will quickly fade into fantasy obscurity was this week’s trade of Cam Akers from the Rams to the Vikings.
Some are wondering if the change of scenery will be good for the struggling running back. That’s cute. Or could be it, and hear me out: Akers is just not any good? He has never topped 1,000 yards, isn’t involved in the passing game, and he is moving into a backfield with a longtime incumbent in Alexander Mattison.
Yeah, you might say, but Akers never really got a fair shake with the Rams, and he produced well late last season.
Sure, he had three 100-yard games to close out the season — games that didn’t matter to the Rams, so no urgency. He also scored six of his seven touchdowns over the final six games. Depending on TD-dependent running backs is never wise. So maybe that swell of production was artificial?
Yeah, you say, but it isn’t as if Mattison has done well this season.
You would be correct. Mattison has been frustratingly hum-drum, but that was expected. He averages just 4.1 yards per carry for his career, so if you drafted him, you were chasing volume, not efficiency
And how does Mattison’s lack of efficiency stack up against Akers’? Well, the former Ram averages just 4.0 ypc in his career. And as bad as Mattison has been this season (dipping to 3.26 ypc), Akers has been even worse (1.3 ypc).
Thesis: This is bad for fantasy managers. Mattison now has competition in the backfield, so that volume you were expecting is not going to happen. And both Mattison and Akers are so bad, neither is good enough to fend off the other, so expect a workload split that undermines both.
If you have Mattison, fire him up this week in what should be a shootout with the Chargers, and with Akers not yet involved. And if Mattison does well, put him on the block immediately.
If you have Akers, try to trade him now. There might be a manager in your league who is buying the change-of-scenery hype. Weaponize that sense of hope to your advantage.
Big Weeks
Kirk Cousins QB, Vikings, vs. Chargers (FanDuel $7,800/DraftKings $)
Here’s a newsflash: Cousins leads all QBs in fantasy production so far. If you drafted him as your No. 2, just a select few should play ahead of him. Set up for monster week vs. Chargers.
Raheem Mostert RB, Dolphins, vs. Broncos (FD $6,600/DK $6,000)
He is top 10 among RBs in PPR leagues. And he draws a Denver defense that isn’t what it used to be. And if Jaylen Waddle is out, he could get more carries.
Betting on the NFL?
Kelley RB, Chargers, at Vikings (FD $6,100/DK $5,400)
He burned us last week, but assuming Austin Ekeler is out again, we’re willing to give Kelley another go. We think he is better than he looked vs. a tough Titans run defense, and we want exposure to the Chargers-Vikes game.
Taysom Hill TE, Saints, at Packers (FD $5,500/DK $6,900)
With Jamaal Williams out, expect to see Hill more involved. We don’t expect the Saints to rely solely on Tony Jones Jr. or Kendre Miller.
Small Weaks
Geno Smith QB, Seahawks, vs. Panthers (FD $7,200/DK $5,700)
We don’t expect big things from Smith this week, because Seattle won’t need it against a weak Carolina team. Even with Andy Dalton at QB, we don’t think the Panthers will be competitive. This is a Kenneth Walker game.
Jerome Ford RB, Browns, vs. Titans (FD $5,600/DK $4,800)
Tennessee has allowed a total of 7.9 fantasy points to RBs across two games. The Madman doesn’t think Ford is going to be the code that cracks that riddle.
Dalvin Cook RB, Jets, vs. Patriots (FD $5,900/DK $5,600)
We expected him to have a bigger role than he has had early. Based on results, look for Breece Hall to start edging ahead in the race for carries.
Zack Moss RB, Colts, at Ravens (FD $6,400/DK $5,500)
The Ravens have been pretty good this season, and historically, against the run. And with QB Anthony Richardson sidelined with a concussion, that is one less threat for the Baltimore run defense.
Site: Yahoo
Slate: Sun. main (12 games)
Type: $10 tourney
Top prize: $10K
Pot: $50K
Drew’s Crew
QB: Justin Herbert (LAC at Min) $30
RB: Brian Robinson Jr. Was (vs. Buf) $18
RB: Kenneth Walker Sea (vs. Car) $25
WR: Justin Jefferson Min (vs. LAC) $43
WR: Mike Williams LAC (at Min) $20
WR: Zay Flowers Bal (vs. Ind) $19
TE: Hayden Hurst Car (at Sea) $14
Flex: Raheem Mostert Mia (vs. Den) $15
DEF: Seahawks Sea (vs. Car) $11
Wilk’s Warriors
QB: Kirk Cousins Min (vs. LAC) $32
RB: Raheem Mostert Mia (vs. Den) $15
RB: Joshua Kelley LAC (at Min) $18
WR: Justin Jefferson Min (vs. LAC) $43
WR: Terry McLaurin Was (vs. Buf) $19
WR: Justin Watson KC (vs. Chi) $10
TE: Mark Andrews Bal (vs. Ind) $20
Flex: Tony Pollard Dal (at Ari) $32
DEF: Seahawks Sea (vs. Car) $11
Season risked: $20
Season’s winnings: Jarad $9, Drew $9
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